The Probability of a Humanitarian Corridor from Cox’s Bazar to Rakhine: Analysing ‎Global Precedents, Local Perceptions, and Security Implications for Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh has been diligently dealing with the Rohingya refugee crisis since the influx of ‎nearly 1.1 million refugees in 2017. With the recent uptick in conflict in Rakhine between ‎the Arakan Army and the Myanmar Junta, tensions have escalated in the province, leading to ‎a further influx of 150,000 refugees in Bangladesh. As a means to provide humanitarian ‎assistance to the Rohingyas in Rakhine, and to stop any further flow of refugees to ‎Bangladesh, the idea of establishing a humanitarian corridor from Cox’s Bazar to Rakhine in ‎Myanmar has been discussed between the United Nations and Bangladesh. This has received ‎widespread negative reception from the country’s experts, political parties, and the Army ‎leadership, fearing a compromise on the country’s national security, territorial integrity, and ‎sovereignty. The research aims to explore the probability of establishing a humanitarian ‎corridor between the two countries to channel aid to Rakhine, utilising global precedents and ‎local knowledge. The research employs Key Informant Interviews (KII) and relevant ‎secondary literature. The findings of the study show a mixed reception about the feasibility ‎of establishing such a humanitarian corridor, both in support of and against it. Other findings ‎suggest a high possibility of national security violations, possible surveillance by foreign ‎entities, breach of territorial integrity, and sovereignty. A qualitative analysis of the benefits ‎derived from the corridor suggests moderate to low benefits for the Rohingyas, with little to ‎no incentives for Bangladesh. The study concludes with recommendations to include key ‎stakeholders such as China, India, Russia, and the United States to be a part of discussions ‎and eventual realisation of a possible humanitarian corridor between Cox’s Bazar and ‎Rakhine, and the eventual repatriation of the Rohingyas. It also emphasises raising global ‎awareness on burden-sharing.