From Shuttle Diplomacy to Diplomatic Shuttle: Evaluating the African Union’s Post-‎Crisis Strategy in Ethiopia, Niger, and Mozambique

Abstract

This paper evaluates the African Union’s post-crisis diplomatic approach in Ethiopia, Niger, ‎and Mozambique, with the AU’s “diplomatic shuttle” and its classical shuttle diplomacy. ‎Classical shuttle diplomacy is the diplomacy of one man, short-term bargaining, and ‎agreement-making. The AU’s approach, on the other hand, is institutional, multi-level, ‎legitimacy-based, and time-bound, and it goes beyond the signing of peace agreements. The ‎three-horizon approach looks at short-, medium-, and long-term results for the AU’s Pretoria ‎Agreement mediation in Ethiopia, its normative response to Niger’s 2023 military coup, and ‎its coordination with SADC in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado. The AU’s best performance is ‎in immediate outcomes, where it can facilitate dialogue, establish negotiation ‎processes, and set continental norms. Intermediate results are mixed, due to implementation ‎gaps, limited inclusivity, and coordination gaps. The longer-term prospects are the least ‎promising, as the AU’s institutions lack the capacity to enforce compliance once an ‎agreement or normative decision has been reached, and resource constraints and structural ‎conflict drivers remain largely unaddressed. Priority reforms include strengthening post-‎agreement monitoring, graduated engagement approaches to coup situations, and enhanced ‎coordination of AU-REC.‎‎